LEO Re-entry & Environmental Impact Model

Numerical 1-DOF ballistic re-entry with stochastic breakup, Sutton–Graves heating, material ablation, NOₓ production estimate, heterogeneous-chem ozone impact proxy, and casualty risk footprint.

Vehicle & Trajectory

Breakup triggers when q = ½ρv² ≥ q*. Post-breakup: fragments generated stochastically if enabled.
What these inputs mean
  • m₀: total mass at interface (~120 km).
  • A: reference cross-section; sets drag and heating collection area.
  • CD: drag coefficient; 2.0–2.2 typical for blunt tumbling shapes.
  • Rn: effective nose radius for stagnation heating; smaller ⇒ hotter.
  • v₀: interface speed; ~7.6–7.9 km/s for LEO.
  • h₀: initial altitude of integration start.
  • γ: flight-path angle; positive is downward. Small positive is shallow.
  • Δt: integrator time step.
  • q*: breakup threshold dynamic pressure (Pa) where structure fragments.
  • L/D: simple lift model (0 = ballistic).

Materials & Mass Fractions

Fractions should sum ≈ 1.0; model normalizes them.
What these inputs mean
  • Fractions approximate bulk materials. Used to split ablation energy draw and yields.
  • Electronics+Cu covers wiring, boards, connectors.
  • CFRP/epoxy drives soot yield when pyrolyzed.

Thermochemistry (effective heats of ablation)

Convective heating via Sutton–Graves: q̇ = k √(ρ/Rn) v³ with k ≈ 1.7415×10⁻⁴ (SI, Earth).
What these inputs mean
  • Habl: effective energy to remove 1 kg (sensible + phase + chemistry).
  • ηabl: fraction of convective heating that goes into the structure (vs air).

Stochastic Breakup & Risk

Risk proxy Ec ≈ (Σ Acas)·(Pop/LandArea)·fland. Global-average only — use ground-track population for formal work.
What these inputs mean
  • Stochastic breakup: splits remnant mass into lognormal fragments.
  • kA: converts fragment mass to area (∝ m2/3).
  • Acas: casualty area per surviving fragment footprint.
  • fland: fraction of ground track over land.

Environmental Yields & Chemistry

NOₓ ≈ kNOx·(convective heat to air) with Gaussian altitude weighting (peak set by NOₓ altitude peak). O₃ proxy uses alumina/titania surface area × uptake rate over a window.
What these inputs mean
  • kNOx: proportionality from energy to air → NOx formed (tunable).
  • hNOx: altitude where NOx formation is most efficient in this proxy.
  • κ: ozone loss proxy rate per unit particle surface area.
  • Window: integration duration for the proxy effect.
Assumptions: 1-DOF along-path dynamics; exponential density; constant Sutton–Graves k; stochastic breakup allocates mass via lognormal; survivor threshold 250 g; simplified NOₓ & ozone proxy parameters are user-tunable—treat as first-order estimates.

Key Events

Totals

How to read these
  • Burned/Residual mass: change in vehicle mass due to ablation; residual may impact.
  • Al₂O₃, TiO₂, SS‑ox, Cu/CuO, Black C: total particulate/oxide yields across all layers.
  • NOₓ: proxy estimate formed in heated air along the path.
  • Surface area: specific surface in stratosphere/mesosphere — larger can enhance heterogeneous chemistry.
  • O₃ loss proxy: ozone-equivalent mass lost via proxy uptake over the window.

Layer Depositions

LayerAl₂O₃ (g)TiO₂ (g)SS-ox (g)Cu/CuO (g)Black C (g)NOₓ (g)
How to read this
  • Shows where in the atmosphere materials and NOx are deposited or formed.
  • Stratospheric burdens are most relevant for ozone chemistry; mesospheric for noctilucent cloud seeding.

Risk & Chemistry Proxies

How to interpret
  • Surviving fragments: pieces ≥ ~0.25 kg assumed to reach ground.
  • Casualty expectation Ec: global-average expected casualties per reentry (use ground‑track models for missions).
  • Common standard: Ec < 1×10⁻⁴ for compliance.

Time History (sampled)

Assumption Checks

Physics self‑checks